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Monday, September 16, 2019

Saudi Drone Strike


A drone strike took out half of Saudi oil production. From a military standpoint, it was brilliant use of asymmetrical warfare. Houthi rebels claim to have launched the attack out of of Yemen. In spite of that claim, blame is being pinned on Iran.

Personally, I think it could have gone down a number of ways. It could have been an attack launched directly from Iran. It’s possible that drone technology could have been transferred to Yemen from Iran. The Houthi rebels are often supported by Iran. Don’t discount the possibility that the rebels did it all themselves. We live in a time of open source warfare. Things like drone technology are available on-line. A bunch of rebels could have home brewed their own drones with off the shelf components.

So what happens next? If we aren’t careful, a much wider war.

With the refinery down, the world loses something like 5 percent of its oil. Here’s the rub, some countries are a lot more reliant on Saudi oil that others. For example, the US doesn’t need it, but China and India could really feel the lack. It will affect the spot market so prices will go up. I’ve heard so called experts saying that gas prices in the US could rise as much as twenty-five cents. Frankly, that’s nothing.

What’s more important is possible effects of a larger war. More Saudi oil could be taken out. Iran, Kuwait, and Iraq could all be pulled out of the market if war comes to the shipping straights. A nasty regional war could spiral out of control. Does anyone see Israel not being drawn into this? Russia? China? The US?

This could be the start of something really nasty.

-Sixbears

4 comments:

  1. You just never know what's gonna happen over there. Like you say, could be the start of something very nasty.

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    Replies
    1. It was a pretty impressive strike, right to the heart of what's important to keep the lights on.

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  2. If Iran was behind it, drones could retaliate on their fuel facilities as well. Tit for tat. Just imagine what would happen if a few different facilities were hit simultaneouly. Fuel cost spiked 20 cents just on this one alone.

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