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Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Dow dive no surprise



Here we are at a “primitive” campsite in the Ocala. Basically, what that means is that there’s no electricity or other hookups at the otherwise very civilized campsites. Today there was finally enough charge from the solar panels to fire up the computer.

After going on-line I discover that the stock market has taken a pretty good tumble while I wasn’t looking. That comes as no surprise. It was just a matter of time. With China’s economy pretty much shut down from the coronovirius, what did you expect to happen?

Eventually all those just-in-time goods, parts and supplies had to run out. The big question is: will the supply lines ever start up again? A number of companies were questioning the wisdom of foreign parts suppliers and manufacture even before the virus scare. Now they have strong incentive to keep more operations local.

In short term it’s going to be a mess. Businesses are going to pull back and hunker down. Eventually things will settle out to a new normal. Logically, it would make sense to manufacture back in the US again, even if it costs more. Things would be more expensive, but on the other hand there would be more US manufacturing jobs.

I’m not sure how agriculture would shake out. People still have to eat.

Of course, there could be enough disruptions in the system to really set everything back. If that happens, expect nations to turn to war. That’s what they do when they can’t solve internal problems. Once again, we are in for some interesting times.

-Sixbears

12 comments:

  1. As long as agricultural components are in stock, our food situation is going to be fine.

    Communist China's food situation? Reports are coming out that whole segments of their food animals have died from lack of care as the workers are either dead, suffering, recovering or quarantined-in-place and not able to care for the animals.

    Not to mention the huge hit the pig population just took and the new hits from avian flu whacking their bird population.

    Interesting as in not-fun times are ahead. Would have been nice if Commie China had been forthcoming with actual information on the virus in time for everyone to shut down travel and properly vet travelers.

    Oh well.

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    1. Totalitarian countries do a pretty poor job with this type of crisis. Local government officials have incentive to hide problems until they are too big to hide.

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  2. Here in the U.S. as per usual , we are doing just the opposite of what China did to contain the virus spread. Trump is out there tweeting that Corona virus is nothing more than the common cold... nothing to be concerned about ?
    Meanwhile we blissfully go about our days going to work , vacationing like business is as usual.
    The edict from Trumplandia , do not interrupt the flow of spice !

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    Replies
    1. The Spice must flow! How did that turn out again? Oh yeah, the overthrow of the previous order.

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    2. In Trump's defense, for the most part it will be less deadly here in the USA because of our foods and our healthcare.

      And Trump did order quarantining of incoming exposed and infected, which some leftist twit in the State Department decided to ignore, and send two batches of infected back to the USA mixed in with normal air passengers.

      Trump wanted and wants incoming infected to be isolated before they come here and to be quarantined at quarantineable facilities, basically back sections of military bases.

      Trump has not, like some other president did during the 2014 Ebola outbreak, authorized bringing exposed not-showing-as-infected people into the country without isolation and quarantine.

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    3. The air passenger fiasco was extremely stupid. The president is just one man and it only takes a few boneheads to put everyone at risk.

      Also, there are lots of people like me without health insurance who won't go to the hospital unless deathly ill.

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  3. With past occurances pertaining to the AG situation here in the US...no your food supply is going to dry up quickly. Your being fed BS. All the floods last year, and more to come this year spell dire straits. If your smart you better be stocking up on food, medicines and batteries at the very least.

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    Replies
    1. The weather has certainly been wacky across the country. Southern New England has seen almost no snow. This is bad for our spring growing season, there's no store of water to feed streams and aquifers just as plants really need it.

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    2. Might be a year of eating weeds and twigs.

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  4. HVAC parts and equipment.
    Appliances and parts,
    Car parts, computer stuff, and all non-foid Wal-Mart items will quickly vanish once the panic AND supply chains slowdowns simultaneously occur. Coming to a town near you.

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  5. Restarting USA manufacturing is a decade long process. Will require complete retooling of our public education systems.

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    Replies
    1. One of my friends went though everything he's going to need that comes from China and is stocking up. Also stocking up on his stored foods.

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