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Saturday, January 23, 2016

Low oil prices (link)



I don't often link to other blogs, but this guy said it better than I can: http://www.inkandbourbon.com/wordpress/?p=132

-Sixbears

13 comments:

  1. The low prices don't do much for the folks who were working around here in the oilfield and have been laid off. Nor do they help the small businesses that had cropped up to serve the workers. It leaves the company I used to work for with a lot less stone to haul, too. ANYTHING that's good for one group is bad for another; it's sad but true.

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    Replies
    1. There are always winners and losers, but most working class people come out ahead.

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  2. Gorges:

    It also harms the clean energy movement, most especially electric cars. Sadly, if we don't feel the pain of crazy high gas prices, and keep feeling it (because we're stupid), we'll never get millions of electric vehicles and other electric mass transit going ... all of which are important if we'd like to avoid a planet that resembles one of the desert scenes from Mad Max.

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    Replies
    1. Not really.

      Cheap oil makes the dirtiest extraction methods less economically viable, like fracking or tar sands.

      Solar is still growing by leaps and bounds, as is wind. New fuel efficiency standards are still in place, and electric cars are entering the market at a pace that makes sense.

      High oil prices may have been the catalyst that helps jump start the move toward efficiency, but the momentum is there.

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    2. Solar is where the new energy jobs are. Growing fast.

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    3. Typical correlation:

      http://nypost.com/2015/02/28/cheaper-gas-prices-give-suv-sales-a-surge/

      Top graph:
      http://www.roenreport.com/wp-content/uploads-public/oil_altenergy.jpg

      Impact:
      http://www.npr.org/2014/10/23/358062856/youre-enjoying-low-gas-prices-but-is-it-really-a-good-sign

      But it's complicated:

      Bottom graph -
      http://www.roenreport.com/wp-content/uploads-public/oil_altenergy.jpg

      http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2015/05/what-drives-alternative-energy-stocks.html

      http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/energy_resources_materials/lower_oil_prices_but_more_renewables_whats_going_on

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  3. Six, thanks for the link. I think he's my new hero! His closing sentence tells my feelings exactly!

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  4. I told people I know 3 months ago to get out of stocks in their 401k's and move the full amount into U.S.Tresury funds. Not one person listened. Still aren't listening. Well, they are reaping the whirlwind now.

    The China situation is unprecedented and is not going to end well. The living in the van down by the river is starting to look pretty good to me.

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  5. A followup. Sometimes it is wiser to think more about the return OF one's capital than the return ON capital. The big money is busy getting out now while the little guys are trying to get in. Another batch of rubes about to get slaughtered.

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  6. Thanks for the link. I went there, read it, and left a comment.

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