Rubymar sinks

A Houthi attack has sunk a bulk carrier, the Rubymar. I believe it was carrying fertilizer. It was thought  that the Houthi would not attack low value bulk carriers. Apparently they are trying to sink anything that floats. 

Before that attack traffic through that area was projected to be on the increase. Since the sinking that thinking has come into question. If even bulk carriers are targets that doesn’t bode well for transportation. If low value commodities have to take the long way around Africa delivery costs will seriously impact prices. 

Guess what’s considered a low value bulk carrier item. Grains. The price of food is about to go up for someone. In rich countries they’ll be able to absorb the higher costs. It’s not going to look good in poorer nations. They will be unable to buy as much food and/or have to charge more for it. 

Food instability is a major cause of unrest. We may be seeing political turmoil in countries far from the Red Sea. That illustrates how dependent the world is on free and safe access to the sea. The Houthi are not particularly sophisticated or technologically advanced. Imagine how badly things could go should a major power get serious about disrupting shipping. 

Actually, Russia upset world grain markets for a time when they prevented Ukraine from exporting. These days the shipping lane from Ukraine is open due to successful drone attacks against the Russian Navy. 

There’s another danger from the sinking of the Rudymar. It went down in an area where a lot of International communication cables lay on the seabed. They are unprotected. Communications hold the world together. 

It just goes to show how some incident in place nobody normally thinks about can cause bigger issues.

-Sixbears

Top off the food storage

It looks bad for grains this year. It’s no surprise that wheat will have a lot of pressure on it. It doesn’t help that two major producers are at war with each other. Rice didn’t do too bad this year, over all, but prices will be pushed up anyway. All grains will feel pressure as people look for substitutes for wheat. 

Grains are generally a fairly cheap way to bulk up food storage. If you absolutely feel the need for wheat get some now. It most likely won’t get cheaper for a while. Personally, I’m adding more rice to my storage. It’s still a pretty good bargain as most Americans don’t eat a lot of rice. There’s a lot more pressure on rice in other parts of the world. 

Last year I bought potatoes in bulk. That worked out so well I’m doubling my purchase this year. Potatoes are local and keep well. My only mistake last year was not buying enough. I don’t figure on my niece moving back in with us. 

Don’t mess around buying spuds in the five pond bags. A friend of mind was shopping at his local store in Kentucky. He thought the five pound bag of potatoes seemed a bit light. He weighed it on the scale and it was only three and a half ponds. He tried a number of bags before finding an actual five pounder.  Buyer beware.

-Sixbears

Food shortages sort themselves out

Food shortages always sort themselves out. One way is that famine and disease reduce the population down to the available food. That’s what happens if you aren’t clever or massively unlucky. 

Let’s see what other options there are. Please. Seriously. Right now the most visible problem is a war between two major grain exporting countries. That’s a lot of grain off the market. Grains are the basis of civilization because they store and ship well. They also are fairly calorie dense. Without grains we have to fall back on other foods.

Meat eaters generally rely on grain fed animals, so a grain shortage affects them too. Grass fed cattle and wild game are exceptions. That’s a limited supply. During the depression just about any critter that could be shot or trapped was eaten. Game laws and enforcement didn’t help all that much. After the depression it took years for the forest critters to recover. 

Beyond grains we have issues with everything from vegetables to honey. Bad weather and/or pests take their toll. Some years are worse than others. This year has some worrying early indicators in key areas.

Then there are inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides. Guess which two countries currently at war are  normally big exporters of fertilizers? Bingo! 

Most pesticides are petroleum based. Add that to the overall issues caused by oil supply problems. I could go on but lets just call this a quick overview.

There are some things in our favor. Countries food supplies aren’t just limited to their borders. Food is shipped all around the world. However, it will go to those who can pay for it. Those in better financial condition will be able to get anything they want. 

Higher prices will suddenly make more areas profitable for agriculture. As it is a lot of African farmers cannot compete with industrial agricultural giants and their economy of scale. The math changes with a general shortage. We will see food grown in places it hasn’t been grown in some time. 

We have a fairly recent example of a country that had to deal with a cut off of food and pesticides. When the Soviet Union fell Cuba was left high and dry. They were basically just growing sugar cane to ship to the USSR at above market rates. That ended. Cuba had a lean year, but they rallied. Just about every square inch that could be planted was planted. They also mobilized their education system to develop a crash program of organic farming. It worked. 

There are ways to cope with the disruptions. At the bare minimum plant anything you can as every bit adds up. Also, don’t get locked into just buying and eating the foods you always ate. Learn to make delicious meals out of what’s cheap and available. It will take some effort but nobody said keeping the horsemen of the Apocalypse at bay is easy.

-Sixbears

Wheat shortages

Wheat shortages are popping up all around the world. When two major International wheat exporters are locked in battle it doesn’t bode well. Some places will do better than others.

Places like Egypt and Africa in general are trouble. Surprisingly, India just barely produces enough wheat for its internal use. What they’ve done is stopped any exports except for special humanitarian reasons. 

Of course, there is stress on all grains right now. Some are directly impacted and others will be in short supply as people try to substitute one grain for another. 

There probably won’t be serious shortages in Western Europe or the United States. Prices will shoot up, so be prepared for that. If you think food prices are high you ain’t seen nothing yet. There are other stresses on the food supply like drought and bird flu. Looking bad for your toast and eggs in the morning. 

My guess is that this will probably last about a year. Places where grains aren’t normally grown will be growing grain. There will be plenty of economic incentive to do so. 

As for myself, it looks like I’ll be stocking up on potatoes again. Potatoes don’t ship nearly as easily as grains so aren’t Internationally traded in huge volume. If potatoes are grown in your area it would be a good idea to stock up. Properly kept they’ll last a while. Better yet, grow you own. 

By the way, cooking oils are mostly made from grains. Keep that in mind if you are adding to food storage. You are going to need something to fry all those potatoes in.

-Sixbears

Don't stock up on Ammo

Don't stock up on Ammo. You missed your chance. People are panic buying it now. Prices are high and supplies are low. Don't buy now. I'm not saying don't buy any ammo. A gun without ammo is just an awkward club. (Unless you have a Mosin Nagant, those are awesome clubs.) Buy what you need, but now is not the time to try and salt away 10,000 rounds.

Here's what you stock up on now: rice. Anyone remember a few years back when the word's supply of rice got tight? People were panic buying rice just like they are now squandering money on overpriced ammo.

Most people have forgotten the days of rice shortage panic. Don't be that person. Grain harvests aren't looking particularly good right now. There will be shortages. Price are going to go up. Pick up 50 pounds of rice, gets some dried beans while you are at. Now is the time. Might be your last chance.

Think of me as that guy from 10 years ago who said that maybe you should pick up a few bricks of .22 before prices get crazy. You may or may not have listened to that guy then. Listen to me now. What have you got to lose? Rice keeps well and you're going to eat it sooner or later anyway.

Don't say I didn't warn you.

-Sixbears