Are you looking forward to the collapse?

Someone recently asked me that. In short, heck no. Just because I have a few more preps than most people doesn't mean I want it to happen. For goodness sake, I'm 59 and fairly comfortable. I've figured out how to get by in the world we have. I could probably go a long ways in a fast collapse situation, but that would be by virtue of my isolation and keeping my head down. That, and the ability to live on bugs and tree bark if necessary.

It might have been more interesting back when I was 18 and full of myself. Of course, I'd probably have ended up dead within six months -or some kind of primitive warlord. That's how things shake out in a fast collapse situation. The most likely outcome would have been dead. Young idealist people who take up arms don't usually turn out well.

For large segments of the population a slow collapse is underway. The middle class is running faster just to stay in place. Young people are really getting the short end of the stick. Working low wage jobs while carrying a large student debt is not sustainable. They have little investment in the system. Heck, if they organized they could crash the financial situation by not paying their student loans all at once.

Income disparity is very bad right now. When 8 people have more wealth that the poorest 4 billion, something is broken. It's been getting worse. Fewer and fewer people will continue to control more and more -if this goes on.

There are some serious challenges, economic, environmental, energy issues, disease, and so on. In a lot of sectors we are already in a slow collapse. It's not everywhere and everybody, but problems have a way of worsening each other.

Is there no hope? Actually, there are some positive signs. People are fighting the good fight, searching for patches and fixes. Solutions tend to be incremental over time and aren't particularly sexy. Often they aren't very satisfying, but as long as they are good enough, we keep on keeping on. Gradual change over a long period of time is change I can believe in.

While I have preps, I'm hoping to only need them for fairly normal disruptions, things like storms and financial set backs. While the whole world crashing and burning is exciting, I'd rather have a nice cup of coffee and a good book.

-Sixbears

Warlords

Someone always steps into a power vacuum. I'm sure that comes as a disappoint to all the Anarchists out there. Anarchy seems fun and all. It even works. During the early days of a disaster, people tend to pull together and do what's right, no leaders or chain of command necessary. So Anarchy works, for a time, here and there.

Over the long run . . . Well, anyone know of a long term functioning Anarchy? Something encompassing more than a handful of people in an isolated area? If you know of one I'd love to study it.

When centralized governments fall or are too week to enforce their will, warlords arise. Sooner or later the biggest, toughest bunch of bullies fills the power vacuum. Every failed state has them. They come in different flavors. Many are not much more than bandits. On the other extreme, the warlords become the government. Parts of Mexico are plagued with narco warlords who control and manage significant territory. They run whole towns and regions.

Syria and Iraq have a warlord smörgåsbord. There are bandit warlords, tribal warlords, religious warlords -every opportunist imaginable. Once they get done fighting the remains of the central government, they'll most likely turn on each other. These guys all climbed to their positions over a mountain of skulls, so don't expect diplomat solutions. They won't play nice together for very long.

Do you know one of the reasons Putin is so popular in Russia? He brought the crime lords under control. For a number of chaotic years Russia was run by the the crime warlords. They filled the vacuum left by the collapse of the USSR. Putin destroyed some. Others he brought into the government. In the end, he got the chaos caused by competing warlords under control. While it is not exactly a Jeffersonian Democracy, Russia is stable and functions.

When Rome fell, the barbarians split it up and ruled the remains as warlords. Over time, the more successful warlords ended up running whole countries. That's the origin of much of Europe's royalty. Their ancestors were the most talented warlords.

Don't be too quick to celebrate the demise of corrupt and inefficient central governments. The warlords that replace them will most likely be much worse. Putin has shown that an iron hand can reign in the warlords, but at a harsh price.

Are those our only two choices? Squabbling warlords or police state? There has got to be a third way. I'm too nice and getting too old to be a warlord, so I'd really like a third option.


-Sixbears