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Friday, October 23, 2015

Fears about China



There's a lot of talk about how China is eating our lunch. They are taking over industrial production. Chinese products are everywhere. We also keep hearing stories about wealthy Chinese buying up high value American properties. The future speaks Mandarin.

Thirty years ago, the future spoke Japanese. It was Japan making all the great cars. Their industrial strength amazed the rest of the world. American landmark properties were being bought by Japanese investors. Sony was going to own the world.

Then some other stuff happened. Financial troubles hit Japan and they really never recovered. The future is hard to see. Our crystal ball is cracked and clouded.

China of today may be the Japan of the 80s. Of course, that doesn't mean the United States will be the next country to profit. For all we know it could be Vietnam, Brazil, or South Africa. Sound unlikely? So did the idea of Chinese dominance back when Nixon when to China.

Of course, the “Chinese Economic Miracle” could keep going for some time yet. We just can't assume it will be the only big player on the block. Someone else could take its place. That's not to say it's going to disappear and shrink back down to a Belgium sized economy. After all, in spite of their problems, the Japanese still have considerable business and technological clout.

-Sixbears



12 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. Hope you have a good seat for watching the show.

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  2. The problem is that we have started the same government intervention into the economy that the Japanese ventured into which put them in trouble. If you look you will notice how when something that we would normally think is bad such as some company laying off thousands of people happens, the stock market and other charts start going up. In short bad news is good. This is because they know that the government will confiscate and borrow more money to "Fix" the problem and then media reports how good things are. When really the guts are being kicked out of the country and money is being redistributed to the rich. So China is destroying it's economic foundation the same way that the Japanese and we are, in fact it is happening all around the world and will eventually stall when the foundations are all destroyed.

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    Replies
    1. Shhhhhhhhh.. Nobody is supposed to notice. Everything is fine. Nothing to see here.

      The potential for collapse is very disturbing.

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  3. Whatever country is on the next boom, you can bet your sweet bippy what's left our manufacturing will be there to give them a boost....(smh)

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  4. The more things change, the more they stay the same!

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    Replies
    1. The only thing that stays the same is change.

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  5. It seems that every country would like to be the big boy on the block, and they all seem to try to be, but only one can be number one at a time. Which country is it? Well, that depends on which currency you use to count your wealth.

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    Replies
    1. Good point Dizzy. Whoever has the world currency is the top dog.

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  6. I can't help but wonder if China has figured out that they were being played by the western financial system, and has decided to turn the tables back on us.

    Dump all our dollars they are holding while simultaneously buying up gold while it is cheap, setting up alternatives to the western system- this could be their strategy- it is interesting that now the IMF is saying(with US backing) that the Chinese currency may finally be allowed into the basket of reserve currencies known as the SDR- which tells me that the Chinese actions are finally getting them worried. Interesting financial times for sure.

    Whether China ends up like Japan, who knows? But I am confident that we won't be taking their place atop the manufacturing heap.

    Great post Sixbears!

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    Replies
    1. Thanks William!

      China definitely has a plan. We will have to wait and see how it works out for them, and the world.

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