Ukraine has to win. If not the fight will become a NATO war and NATO will win. Expect Russia to lose all of their gains including Crimea. They are actually going to be in a worse position than 2013. Ukraine had a lease agreement so that Russia could keep its base there. That won’t happen this time around.
Expect Russia to have a change of management. I can’t believe the “news” pundits who are worried about what Putin will do. Russia has proven to be a paper tiger. All Putin can do is to threaten nuclear war. I don’t think he’ll get a chance to use a tactical nuke, even if he wants to. How much do you want to bet that western intelligence knows the status of all those tactical nukes? Odds are very long against them making it into the field.
There’s the threat of strategic nukes. Maybe Putin is desperate and crazed enough to want to go down in radioactive flames. I seriously doubt he’d get the chance. Falling out of high windows is a common problem among Russian elites. It could be his turn. Don’t know if he’s that crazy but time will tell. Sure, it could all go south, but such is life. You play the odds and take your chances. If Russia isn’t stopped in Ukraine it will have to be stopped in Warsaw.
The nukes will be issue, just like they were when the USSR broke up. That was dealt with. When the Russian Federation breaks up we already have a template to safe the stockpiles. The Russian Federation will break up. It’s not a country. It’s an empire formed by conquest. Already plenty of non-Russian people are worried that they give to Moscow and get nothing back. Then again, plenty of regular Russians have issues with management too.
Some long range planners are concerned with what will happen to the territory that will be left after Russia breaks up. Who will fill the power vacuum? China was a concern. The Chinese may want to expand and take control of Russian natural resources. That might happen to a small degree but it won’t get far. China is falling apart too. The US just hastened its demise by cutting off Chinese access to high and mid-grade computer chips. It recently even banned the equipment needed to make the low end stuff. That will hamper them. One thing most people don’t realize is that Japan, all by itself, could hold its own against China. They won’t be by themselves.
So for now the war drags on creating many unnecessary deaths and disruptions. All those can be laid at the feet of Putin’s ambition. Russia has a reputation of coming back from disaster, rallying the troops and going back into the field to win. They did that in WWII. What the Russians gloss over is that they never could have done it without the US supplying food and weapons. Well this time around the aid is going against Russia.
Russia has already lost its main goals. More countries joined a strengthened NATO. Ukraine is more independent and nationalistic than ever. Just as bad, Russian equipment, training, and leadership has been shown wanting. The war has been lost. Now it’s a matter of how long the fighting will go on.
-Sixbears
And so goes the narrative.
ReplyDeleteFirst factoid if you were to actually read Putin's speeches, HE's NOT using the Nuclear Word. The Predictive Programming West is. Or is it Projection West?
Before you start replying PLEASE do me the honor of Reading the transcripts of Putin's speeches. They are out there.
Second as I've said in many blogs all Putin needs to do is survive the Western attacks and keep the West from starting the nuclear ball rolling. Winter's cold and such will pry a fair bit of Europe from America's grasp ending NATO.
Something about freezing to death in the dark to change politics. Just the week before somebody blew up the Nord Stream lines Germany was enjoying public protests across their cities about making nice to Russia and getting that gas turned back on. You's have to search for that just like the Dutch Farmer revolts. Not Narrative positive.
Yes, Russia is having trouble dealing with the nearly endless stream of US Dollars, and military aid we are pouring into county 404. So far, the publicly announced amounts have exceeded Russia's entire military budget for several years.
I've still military supply friends at Ft Bragg and they've told me that ALL the European AND Middle East war stocks pre-positioned for the 82nd is gone to Ukraine.
And they've had to pack up and send their own stateside stocks for overseas deployment (maybe Ukraine, don't know).
Even Forbes and Barron's have posted worrisome articles that our military cupboard is empty as China the supplier of the rare earths (and their manufacturing of chips for American weapons) has had supply side "issues" as in not arriving.
But hey, All Hail Victory in the Ukraine as our fuel and money flows there in an ever-increasing stream and OUR energy prices and food issues continue to mount.
As Cisero said: For this day’s work, lords, you have encouraged treason and opened the prison doors to free the traitors. A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and he carries his banners openly against the city. But the traitor moves among those within the gates freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears no traitor; he speaks in the accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their garments, and he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation; he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of a city; he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to be feared. The traitor is the carrier of the plague. You have unbarred the gates of Rome to him.
Praying for our Republic
I predict: Very shortly within weeks, US special operations will be in country training Ukrainian soldiers how to use the technology that will soon follow. Then there will be a quiet pull out, and a wait time.
DeleteThey killed Caesar after all.
Putin would be an idiot to nuke Ukraine. Why takeover a country you just made glow ? Not to mention it being adjacent to Russia, where I believe the winds would spread back to Russia. If there would be nuclear weapons deployed by Russia, it wouldn't be sent to Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteAnd that target would have to deal with the effects of nuclear hit(s). It doesn't matter if Russia became hit back - the target would still have to deal with millions of refugees fleeing the nearby region. That alone, in this time of lack energy would be felt world wide.
Which is what may be wanted by the people who are pushing for this war. They need a world wide crisis, much like the pandemic to create panic. Panic causes 'emergency measures' which cannot be undone easily.
You can not have a rational conversation with irrational men.
DeleteHell , we don't know where many of the Backpack nukes went , after the USSR broke up.
ReplyDeleteLet alone all of the tens of thousands of other fissile munitions.,. I have doubts that Ukraine gave up all of theirs either.
With a little help , Putin might well convince Kim Un to lob a couple EMP bursts our way too.
I remember being on alert for an extended period of time after about 40 of them back pack problems disappeared from a train traveling south through Ukraine in the very early 80's ish. They have never been located.
DeleteAnd in the end the World Economic Forum's plans to have both Nationalistic America and Russia broken and shuffled off to the dustbin of history.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile in OTHER NEWS, American's having to decide between heating their homes, feeding their children or buying their medications. Almost a rerun of the late 70's under shithead Carter, where just like Biden the OPEC Nations told him to pound sand.
And good times were had by all.
I remember when the term, "Let's go Huntin." Meant something completely different.
DeleteAgreed!
ReplyDeleteGood thing Russia's all out of missiles and arty.
Oh...wait!
"Out of"? Don't be stupid.
Delete"Can't make any more, nor buy as much as they want". O hell yes.
Does anyone figure they're refurbing T-62s from back in the stone age and buying Iranian drones because they're the superior products??
Lol, you really hit tge drugs before writing this didn't you.
ReplyDeleteIt's hard to be 100% wrong, but you pulled it off. I guess you think the vax is safe also? That Biden the donkey is doing a great job? Any other MSM BS you want to puke back up?
ReplyDeleteWhat Putin says is irrelevant. He's KGB raised and disinformation is the norm.
ReplyDeleteWatch what Putin DOES. And he's been stomping on his dick with cleats since day 1 of the incursion.
The GDP of Russia is slightly less than that of Texas (2021). They are NOT in a good place.
Everybody has a opinion. Time will tell.
ReplyDeleteAs a history buff more empires fell through economic disaster from foolish wars.
Maybe it's America's time after pumping into Ukraine so much money, fuel, food and weapons (must include backfill to NATO "Donations ")