An Interesting Winter

. . . but maybe a good spring? 

We shall see. I can make a pretty good argument for the interesting winter part. We already have an interesting fall. Just following the current issues will be enough to hold our attention. 

Inflation is in the news, and in the grocery stores. I’m not sure that the Fed’s job killing efforts are the way to go. However, I’m not an economist. Too bad, as it’s a great job. You can always be wrong and still work in your field. 

Real estate has some negative trends going on. High interest rates are making home loans more expensive. Since hurricane Ian you can expect insurance rates to go up too. Places that were hot markets during the pandemic are cooling rapidly. Turns out a lot of urban dwellers don’t like living in rural Lower East Podunk Nowhereville. 

This mid term elections are heating up. I’m betting there will be more than a few surprises on election day. Of course everyone will accept the results, shake hands, and plan for the next election. Right. That doesn’t happen so much anymore. Personally I can’t believe how many people are still stuck on the 2020 election. The world keeps on moving. Try to keep up.

The war in Ukraine is getting more intense. The Ukrainians are wisely hitting Russian logistics very hard. Russia’s response has been to hit static civilian targets. It’s a war crime and it doesn’t advance their cause. Expect more Ukrainian gains. Russian conscripts are going into a meat grinder. Some military experts expect winter to cause a major slow down in intensity. They might be in for a surprise. 

One thing to come out of all this is the weakness of Russia. They are struggling and are getting clobbered by the Ukrainian's use of western weapons. Here’s the thing. The west is only now starting to send a little of the top shelf stuff. The Russians have been getting beat with second and third tier weapons. 

Energy is an issue and will continue to be until at least spring. Europe is going to have a long cold winter. However, they are working very hard to fill the huge gap left by departing Russian fuels. By next winter they won’t even miss Russian energy supplies as they will have found alternatives. 

Gasoline prices really aren’t all that bad in the US right now. The big issue is diesel and heating oil. I know heating oil is too expensive for me this winter. The woodstove will be our primary heat source. My neighbor locked in a lower price with a prebuy program. Soon after I checked into the program only to find it was suspended in my area. 

By spring my guess is that a lot of the financial instability will be over. The trial and error school of economics will have sorted something out. The election will be behind us and new people settled into office. It’s just a feeling, but I think Russia will be seriously looking for a way out of Ukraine -if they haven’t been pushed out by then. A change of leadership is probably already in the works. As the weather warms up pressure on diesel and fuel stocks will drop. 

Spring could have a lot of things sorted out and some positive trends started. 

Of course, freaking Putin could decided to go nuclear and all bets are off.

-Sixbears