Supply Disruptions

Back in the 70s being an independent trucker was a really good paying job. Even the freedom of the open road was still a thing. Now the pay is terrible. Too many companies have reduced trucker pay to the point where burger flipping looks good. Almost as bad, a trucker’s movements are followed in real time and all important decisions are made at the head office. 

That’s been going on for a considerable length of time. Now we have the complications of high fuel prices and parts shortages. High fuel prices is a worldwide situation. Those of us in the US have no reason to feel special about it. Same goes for inflation in general. Truck parts are delayed or canceled due to the on-going covid related supply disruptions. 

It’s really going to be an issue with food supply and prices. Modern industrial agriculture eats oil and spits out grain. Everything from farm equipment, to fertilizers, to pesticides, to process and delivery systems relies on oil. 

Sure, the war in Ukraine doesn’t help, especially for the general International oil markets. Fortunately for North America, we are pretty self reliant in energy these days. North America could isolate itself to a certain extent from International markets. 

Most people don’t realize it, but North America is in a massive reindustrialization at a frantic pace. Not everything will be in place in time so there will continue to be supply disruptions. 

That’s all big picture stuff. For the little guy it comes down to making sure to have the basics on hand. Being flexible is going to help too. Don’t put yourself in a situation where you have a long commute in a big diesel pickup. Have a number of ways to heat or cool your home. You will probably have to get used to sweating in the summer and freezing in the winter. 

It’s going to to be an interesting ride. 

-Sixbears

Supply Disruptions

There’s a lot of chatter out there about supply disruptions. There are broken links in the chain reaching from the factory to your house. Remember when they couldn’t find enough truck drivers? Well now they can’t even keep the trucks on the road due to the unavailability of spare parts.

Previously I mentioned the food supply issues and how knowing to make something tasty with whatever is available is a needed skill. Pro tip: stock up on spices while you still can and don’t be afraid to use them. The same basic ingredients, with the proper spices, can be anything from Mexican, to Asian, to Indian meals. It’s a quick way to get variety when you don’t really have many ingredients.

Being able and willing to fix things will make all the difference. Going down to the store for a replacement is no longer a guaranteed option. Fortunately, I’ve always had a tight budget and learned how to make do. One of my cars had a bad temperature switch for cooling fan. It was fine at highway speed what would overheat if stuck in traffic. The replacement part was expensive and difficult to find. Tapping a manual switch directly into the fan did the job for a couple bucks.

Another thing I’m glad I never got into was the whole decluttering thing. That “unsightly clutter” is where I get the parts and materials to keep my stuff running.

Given enough tools and junk you can make just about anything out of almost nothing.

-Sixbears

The Sound of Bursting Bubbles part I

The next economic downturn is going to be an interesting one.

When the real estate bubble burst in 2008, almost none of the bad actors took their lumps. Even blatantly criminal financial criminal activities were rarely and only sporadically punished. In a demonstration of massive political power, the banks turned private risk into public debt. Politicians who voiced opposition to the take over had their political careers destroyed.

Since then the hold of corporations on the levers of government have only gotten stronger. That's how tax bills with 75% disapproval ratings get passed. Corporations and the wealthy one tenth of one percent are doing quite well.

It's not going to last. There are signs that we are in another financial bubble. The stock market is one indicator. High prices are not justified by real earnings. Bitcoin has grown at a rate fast enough to cause nose bleeds. Even some real estate markets have gotten out of hand. Just to make things interesting, the laws that are supposed to protect the public have gotten even weaker.

There are also some major disruptions to the markets that fundamentally change the way markets work. Two big ones are manufacturing and energy. Even the Chinese have embraced automation as it out performs their low wages. It's worse in higher wage countries. Good manufacturing jobs will continue to disappear.

Fossil fuel markets are in disarray. There are some huge changes happening. Fracking has hurt traditional oil producers causing political upset. It's one of the factors behind the shake up in Saudi Arabia and political tension in Russia. Right now it's about the same price to build a wind or solar farm than it is to build a coal plant. If you go with wind or solar, your energy is then free. With a coal plant you still have to buy the coal. Alternative energy is still getting cheaper too.

One of the last big hold outs for fossil fuel has been transportation. Most people don't realize it, but electric cars and trucks will take over the market much faster than predicted. The technology is just about ready for prime time. Lower operating costs is going to be the driving force for the switch over. Electric vehicles will prove to be reliable and inexpensive to maintain.

Another thing that will have to be dealt with is the fact that people have less and less disposable money to spend. Millenials get a lot of flack for “destroying” certain parts of the economy. They aren't buying cars or houses in large enough numbers. Even restaurant chains are blaming them for their troubles. The fundamental problem for young people is that they don't have any money. They are burdened by huge student loans for educations that fail to provide high wages.

That's just a quick overview of the situation. The point is that the world markets will go through some upsetting times. We may be looking at a time of change as unsettling or even more disruptive than the Russian Revolution of a hundred years ago.

Tomorrow: how do we cope?

-Sixbears

Predictions for 2014

Nope. Not going to make any.

Anyone can look at the trends from 2013 and make an educated where these things will end up. In fact, a lot of them will probably end up where we expect them to go. Anything that can't go on indefinitely -won't. It's a truism, because it's true. Plenty of other people do a good job of connecting the dots. No need for me to join them.

What really interests me is the things we don't see coming. Disruptive things. Game changers. Can you guess why I'm so interested in them? Why does a bit of chaos make me smile?

Think about it. Who benefits from the status quo? Those at the top, that's who. Anyone think they've had their way too long? The rich get richer. The powerful get more powerful. That's the applecart, so it's no wonder I'm interested in the things that can upset it. To continue the metaphor, us little folks don't have any apples in the cart anymore.

What are game changers? It could be a disruptive technology. It could be a political awakening. Religious change. Spiritual awakenings. New financial systems. Those are just some general categories -no specifics here. Real disruption most likely will come from way out in left field.

The big difference these days is that changes, thanks to the interconnectedness of the world, can spread faster than ever before. Even more disruptive is the peer to peer nature of the Internet. There's no need to go through authorities, bosses, or chiefs of any kind. Peon to peon communication was never so quick or widespread. No wonder the powers that be want to spy on everyone all the time. They are terribly afraid.

While I won't make any predictions for 2014, I will make a humble suggestion. Keep your eyes open for those game changers; if for no other reason than to avoid getting hit by a falling applecart.

-Sixbears

Problems just fade away and disruptive technology

The world is full of problems just crying out for our attention. Do you know how a lot of them will be solved? They won't, they'll go away on their own.

Huh?

Think about it. When's the last time someone has complained there's not enough hitching rails for horses in their downtown? What about the horse manure problem on Main Street? Those problems went away with the horse. Of course, they've been replaced by car problems, but few make complaints about horses.

No one is nagged about rewinding a rented VHS tape. DVDs and now direct Internet downloads made that problem go away.

Automatic weapons? That problem will go away soon after there's an Instructable on how to build a destro-ray in your basement.

Think of the problem with nuclear proliferation. Do you know what's going to make that problem go away? When there's weapons that make nuke bombs look like crossbows, the problem will go away. Believe it or not, there was once serious talk about banning that horrific weapon known as the crossbow.

New technology makes old problems disappear. Often, it's pretty darn disruptive. Take the crossbow for example. At the time, the mounted armored knight was at the top of the military hierarchy. It took a lot of money, equipment and training to field those knights. Then crossbows came along. A skinny half-trained peasant could kill a knight with one well placed crossbow bolt.

New technology challenges the political order. Those in charge like the old way of doing things. After all, those are the conditions that allowed them to crawl to the top in the first place. It's in their best interest to suppress new developments. Never mind that many of those new developments could make life for everyone better. Power is not about making lives better.

Being in the 99%, I'm always looking for disruptive technology and ideas that will make my life better -at the expense of the elite.

Here's a partial wish list;

Power plant in a box: $299.00, just disconnect from the grid, plug it in, and enjoy free limitless electrical power.

Real Life matter transporter: $599.00 Do an end run around the TSA!

Drone Be-Gone Spray: $3.99 Kills surveillance and Predator drones dead!

Truth Ray: $49.99 One zap from the Truth Ray and the target can only tell the truth. Fun at parties and when Congress is in session!

Immortality Salve: $8.95 Just three easy applications to achieve immortality. (Don't forget to swab your heels.) Tell your medical insurer goodbye -forever.

You get the idea. Any of these things would be a game changer. They won't be available in stores or on TV. They, or something else currently unimaginable, will appear on the Internet. Why do think the Powers that Be want to regulate and limit the Internet? It's because it's one of those disruptive technologies that got out of the box.

-Sixbears