Saudi Drone Strike

A drone strike took out half of Saudi oil production. From a military standpoint, it was brilliant use of asymmetrical warfare. Houthi rebels claim to have launched the attack out of of Yemen. In spite of that claim, blame is being pinned on Iran.

Personally, I think it could have gone down a number of ways. It could have been an attack launched directly from Iran. It’s possible that drone technology could have been transferred to Yemen from Iran. The Houthi rebels are often supported by Iran. Don’t discount the possibility that the rebels did it all themselves. We live in a time of open source warfare. Things like drone technology are available on-line. A bunch of rebels could have home brewed their own drones with off the shelf components.

So what happens next? If we aren’t careful, a much wider war.

With the refinery down, the world loses something like 5 percent of its oil. Here’s the rub, some countries are a lot more reliant on Saudi oil that others. For example, the US doesn’t need it, but China and India could really feel the lack. It will affect the spot market so prices will go up. I’ve heard so called experts saying that gas prices in the US could rise as much as twenty-five cents. Frankly, that’s nothing.

What’s more important is possible effects of a larger war. More Saudi oil could be taken out. Iran, Kuwait, and Iraq could all be pulled out of the market if war comes to the shipping straights. A nasty regional war could spiral out of control. Does anyone see Israel not being drawn into this? Russia? China? The US?

This could be the start of something really nasty.

-Sixbears

Tanker War

If you’ve been following the news lately you are aware of the ships that were attacked in the Straights of Hormuz. Another tanker attack recently did not receive much news. Coalition planes attacked three Syrian tankers. Syria is an ally of Iran, so it appears to be a little proxy war going on.

Speaking of proxy wars, Saudi Arabia is fighting in neighboring Yemen against fighters supported by Iran. The Saudis are also committing horrendous human rights abuses against civilians, but apparently that’s not a problem for the Trump administration. Trump has bypassed Congress to make sure the Saudis get absolutely everything they want -including nuclear technology.

We’ve got no business getting in the middle of a fight between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It’s hard to overstate how much those two countries hate each other. The fight goes all the way back to the Shia and Sunni split and gets worse from there. The hatred is so strong that I think Iran would alley with Israel if they agreed to attack Saudi Arabia.

Our history in the region is a laundry list of unintended consequences. Here’s a few high points. The US had allied with the Shah but he was replaced by radical clerics. Later we supported Saddam and Iraq in a war against Iran. Things didn’t go well with the war or with Saddam for that matter. We are currently in a situation where Iran actually has a lot of influence in Iraq where militias backed by them operate freely.

The Saudi’s are not the best allies in the world. They export radical Islam around the world. Never forget that most of the 911 terrorists came from Saudi Arabia. The only reason we supported them in past is oil. Frankly, they are of much less strategic importance to us in recent years.

The US is not as susceptible to price fluctuations in oil. Headlines screamed out that oil prices had “spiked,” but in reality they were less than four percent. I’m old enough to remember the oil embargo days when a spike in oil would be at least forty percent. Crazy times.

Personally, I think we are stumbling into a conflict where we have little to gain and much to lose. I’m sick and tired of seeing young American troops being put in harm’s way when very little of US strategic value is at stake.

-Sixbears