Saturday, July 16, 2016
Trouble and markets
As I write this a coup is taking place in Turkey. Erdogan, the increasingly authoritarian ruler has apparently been deposed. I say apparently because he's escaped the country and is calling for the people to rise up against the military. With communications almost completely shut down it's difficult for me to know what's going on. Of course, the US government appears to have also been caught flat footed on this on so I don't feel too bad.
It's going to get interesting over the next few days. Turkey is an important member of NATO and is a key player in the region. The best solution right now would be the one that resolves the situation quickly. Unfortunately there are hints that this won't be over in a day or two. The longer the situation remains unresolved, the worse it's going to be.
Coming on the heels of the horrific loss of life in France, the world is on edge. How much turmoil can the world absorb before it freaks out? Look to the financial markets on Monday and Tuesday. That will be a good freak out indicator. If the markets go nuts then we aren't in Kansas anymore. I am not a financial advisor, so my opinions are not investment advice. With that in mind, if the markets tank early in the week, it would not surprise me if they stayed in turmoil for some time.
When the Brexit vote caught people by surprise, the US stock market took a tumble, but it soon recovered. This time it's different. People are dying out there. This time the news won't be quickly absorbed and adjusted to.
Next week should give us some idea how the rest of the summer is going to turn out. Just to make things interesting there's a huge heat wave predicted over most of the country. Can we say: crazy from the heat?
Should the world get another major shock in the next few days, batten down the hatches. We are in for rough weather.