Recession on the way?

Are you prepared for the next recession? Some financial gurus have recently issued warnings that another one is on the way. It could be within a year. There are some troubling early warning signs.

I get weird indicators from the strangest places. There are sailing forums that have some pretty well off people on them. Those people live in a different world that I do. One guy was complaining that professional fiberglass work was so expensive. He said he didn’t have much work that needed doing, but he really didn’t want to pay the current rate for skilled labor. That attitude kinda flipped me out. This guy happens to have two large and expensive boats, one kept on the east coast and another on the west. His insurance costs are likely higher than my annual income. No doubt his marina storage fees are outrageous. So where does he want to save money? He wants to take it out of the wages of a person who’s making a blue collar living.

The boat owner casually mentions that he would wait a year for the recession and then be able to hire desperate workers for less. I was angry, both by his acceptance of a recession and then his casual attitude towards how he was going to exploit workers. If that does comes to pass, I hope the work is shoddy and the flipping boat sinks.

My big indicator of a recession: good waiters and waitresses. When times are getting tough people have to take jobs that they are over qualified for. That’s when you get people with college degrees waiting tables. In a booming economy, restaurants have to take what they can get. So if the help is particularly helpful, that could be an warning sign. Of course, if you can’t go out to eat yourself, that’s an indicator that the recession has hit you personally.

Recessions are only publicly announced many months after we’ve been in one. Prepared people notice early warning signs and adjust early.

-Sixbears