North Korean Weapons Program

In spite of some nice photos, smiles and handshakes, North Korea continues its nuclear program. This Newsweek article states that they could have up to 40 nuclear bombs in 2020. Too bad we aren’t paying all that much attention to them right now.

The crisis of the week involves Iran, another nuclear wanna be. Of course, they are working towards a bomb, while North Korea has already tested theirs. No matter, now we are going to worry about Iran. In fact the US administration is blaming them for a Saudi drone attack. That drone attack, while it did impressive damage, didn’t kill anyone. Pretty strategic, especially when you consider US drones just killed 30 farmers in Afganistan. That should insure a good supply of people who hate the US.

Does anyone remember when Venezuela was the big crisis? Those were days. Lately it seems that the United States can only focus on one crisis at a time. Not only that, some crisis are more popular than others.

Do you know who has not forgotten North Korea? Japan. They will not tolerate a nuclear armed North Korea forever. They have not been silent about it either. Not only that, Japan has seriously pushed the constitutional limits on their military. One small example: they have helicopter carriers that only need VTOL jets like the F-35 to be actual air craft carriers. By the way, they have a very aggressive program for acquiring F-35s. Imagine that.

Should Japan attack North Korea, the US would soon be drawn into the conflict. Any idea how China would deal with an attack? Is history going to repeat itself?

Interesting times.

-Sixbears

Checkmate in Venezuela

There’s a lot of gnashing of teeth about Russian and Chinese troops being stationed in Venezuela. National Security Advisor Ambassador John Bolton is having kittens over the whole thing.

Okay, first of all, John Bolton should have gone to prison for his efforts to get us into the second Iraq war. Anyone remember the non-existent weapons of mass destruction? Why he’s got a position of power in this administration is beyond me. That’s just my opinion.

The limited number of Russian and Chinese troops can’t actually provide much of a military threat. What they can do is act as a tripwire. If US troops invade and start killing Russian and/or Chinese troops things could escalate dramatically. The foreign troops in Venezuela basically provide the same guarantees that US troops in Berlin did during the Cold War. They aren’t strong enough to be much of a threat, but there’s enough of them that they could get killed and incite the folks back home.

US moves in Venezuela have been blocked. It’s checkmate unless some idiot decides to risk WWIII. The smart move for the US here is take our lumps and walk away.

Something of concern closer to home is the flooding in the Midwest. Early indications are that food production in the region will suffer greatly. Expect food prices to go up. They probably won’t go up in a hyperinflation spiral. That’s where a three dollar loaf of bread is suddenly a hundred dollars or more. What we are more likely to see is that three dollar bread rising in price to six dollars. That’s high, but not the end of the world.

It’s not just grains, of course, but all the farm animals that rely on those feeds. Maybe it won’t be as bad as feared. There’s also the chance that good harvests in other parts of the country could help keep prices down. Over the next few months it wouldn’t hurt to keep an eye on the sales and stock up your pantry and freezer if you can. You might be able to put off the impact of price increases. Every little bit helps.

Of course, if the US decides to have a little South American military adventure, you’ll be glad you’ve got a well stocked pantry.

-Sixbears

Interesting information from unusual sources

We know our news is pretty filtered these days. To make matters worse, it’s very easy to have news feeds pander to your existing biases. Sometimes, however, interesting information can be found without really looking for it.

Lately there’s been a lot of attention grabbing scuttlebutt on various sailing forums.

It’s no secret that sailing can be pretty expensive. People with fancy yachts have issues with protecting their wealth and investments. Lately there’s been a lot of chatter about Europe. People are concerned about keeping their wealth in Euros. There’s even talk that maybe there won’t even be Euros five years from now. The main concerns are Brexit and the unrest in France, Italy and other countries. The smart money has serious doubts about the EU holding together.

Now some background for the next bit of information. Larger boats use something called the AIS system. In short, boats have transponders that broadcast basic information about the boat -things like boat name, speed, heading, size and whatnot. It’s one way ships are able to avoid collisions in the dark.

Military ships don’t play by the same rules. Only recently after a few embarrassing collisions have they started to turn them on, and only in high traffic areas. There’s some indication that military ships sometimes broadcast false AIS signals showing them to be harmless merchant vessels instead of warships. About a month ago there was a lot of suspicious AIS and US Navy traffic off the coast of Venezuela. There’s talk of boats running “dark” and others with false IDs.

Speaking of Venezuela, yachts in the Caribbean have noticed Russian and Chinese flagged vessels heading there, more than normal. Looks like things maybe be getting dangerous in that part of the world.

Interesting times.

-Sixbears