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Saturday, August 17, 2013

Civil war in Egypt



Anyone doubt the situation in Egypt has slipped into civil war?

The Muslim Brotherhood won the election. Maybe they were the most popular, but maybe they were the most organized. The Brotherhood has been playing a long game. No other group had anything near their organization.

Well, no other group except the Egyptian Military. Those with the biggest and most guns win.

Christians and secularists appear to be caught up in the violence, but lack the muscle to do much about it.

Anyone miss Mubarak yet?

Some analysts claim the original source of the unrest is economic. Egypt has a large and mostly poor population. Securing the basics of life is a struggle. No political changing of the guard has done anything to remedy that. If anything, it's made things worse. How many tourists have canceled or postponed indefinitely their trip to see Egyptian historical sites?

The situation has turned very bloody. It would take an extraordinary turn of events for a peaceful settlement at this time. Expect it to get worse before it gets better.

While the original “Arab Spring” events in Egypt had relatively limited violence, that wasn't the end of the process. Most people who first protested in the streets back then probably didn't expect things to devolve into the violent mess it is now. History shows us that peaceful regime change is the exception rather than the rule.

In the short term the situation will be resolved by those who are best at violence. Mao is proven right all too often. Political power "grows out of the barrel of a gun.”

-Sixbears

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12 comments:

  1. All very sad, particularly for the people who want nothing like that violence. What is it about power that's so good? That some people will kill to get it or keep it? I don't understand it. I used to be "in charge" of nursing homes and psychiatric hospital wards. It was power of sorts and yet I never liked much of it myself. Couldn't wait to get out of it. There are plenty of "tiny hitlers" out there, it seems let a person have a bit of authority over others and, by Golly, they are going to use it, and then abuse it before long.

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    1. Most people just want to live in peace, but not enough get the chance.

      Where some people saw power all you saw was duty. I understand the draw of power and have had to actively resist it. It's a heady drug that some of us have to avoid. Unreflective people can easily slide into it. Power can change a person, and not for the better.

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  2. What a tangled mess we wove our way into. And there doesn't seem to be a way out at all.

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    1. We funded Egypt's military and now they won't even take our calls. The US keeps poking its nose into the Middle East, even when there are few US interests in places like Egypt and Syria.

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  3. This has been happening for thousands of years. It wouldn't matter if there were 5000 people living there, most of them would still be poor and some rich pharaoh would be running things and someone would be trying to kill him.

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    1. Thousands of years of civilization hasn't done Egypt much good. Maybe civilization itself is a bad deal?

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    2. There are two kinds of people, those who run with the herd and those who don't like herds. The herd is safety most of the time but in Egypt it would be better to leave the herd and take a trip up the Nile and catch some fish.

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    3. Running off to go fishing is a under used strategy.

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  4. Sadly, your last statement is true in most cases.

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  5. Fishing would certainly be a more productive way to go.

    Seems like we, as a country, should learn to keep our noses out of the affairs of others!

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    1. Really, fishing is really something that hasn't been tried nearly enough.

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  6. No too surprising. Can't force "civilized" democracy on some places. I remember when Mubarek was removed, my friends who lived in Egypt teaching years ago threw an Egyptian themed pot-luck party to celebrate. A lot of fun, and a happy moment, but I knew Egypt would just keep moving in to more chaos. Hope all goes well over in that world.

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