Saturday, August 17, 2013
Civil war in Egypt
Anyone doubt the situation in Egypt has slipped into civil war?
The Muslim Brotherhood won the election. Maybe they were the most popular, but maybe they were the most organized. The Brotherhood has been playing a long game. No other group had anything near their organization.
Well, no other group except the Egyptian Military. Those with the biggest and most guns win.
Christians and secularists appear to be caught up in the violence, but lack the muscle to do much about it.
Anyone miss Mubarak yet?
Some analysts claim the original source of the unrest is economic. Egypt has a large and mostly poor population. Securing the basics of life is a struggle. No political changing of the guard has done anything to remedy that. If anything, it's made things worse. How many tourists have canceled or postponed indefinitely their trip to see Egyptian historical sites?
The situation has turned very bloody. It would take an extraordinary turn of events for a peaceful settlement at this time. Expect it to get worse before it gets better.
While the original “Arab Spring” events in Egypt had relatively limited violence, that wasn't the end of the process. Most people who first protested in the streets back then probably didn't expect things to devolve into the violent mess it is now. History shows us that peaceful regime change is the exception rather than the rule.
In the short term the situation will be resolved by those who are best at violence. Mao is proven right all too often. Political power "grows out of the barrel of a gun.”