Migration disruption

We underestimate the effects of massive human migration.

Historically human migration has toppled empires. If the Huns or the Mongols are coming, all one can do is get out of the way or submit. Even submitting isn't a very good idea if the invaders are keen to pile up pyramids of skulls.

Anything can start the disruption. It could be whole tribes fleeing invaders, or it could be something as simple as climate changes causing the crops to fail. Hungry people are desperate.

In more recent years there have been many mass migrations of people. They have put strains on their host countries, like when the Palestinians moved into Jordan. In general, refugees are not allowed to flood into and overwhelm countries. There are mechanisms to deal with them.

Refugee camps are set up. They keep people under control. Many camps are fenced in and armed guards patrol. An even more effective method of control is provided by handing out food, supplying at least minimal shelter and giving medical treatment. There's an unwritten agreement: stay here and don't overrun our country and we'll provide for your basic needs. International organizations help defray the expenses of running the camps.

We've forgotten how truly disruptive massive refugee invasion can be. Many in the US think Central and South Americans are overwhelming the country. It's no where near that level. One of the reasons the border is so porous is that big business has a demand for cheap labor. If there were no jobs waiting for them the big incentive to cross the border would go away.

Now however, it's not just job seekers coming across the border. It's people fleeing violence and political turmoil in their home countries. This is just a trickle. Most people don't want to move far away from their country and the culture they grew up in. Things would have to get much worse before it became a flood. That could happen.

Europe is getting their fair share of refugees right now. So far governments around the world have been strong enough to manage the problem. Now picture a situation where first world governments are weakened and the refugee situation increases exponentially. It happened to the Roman Empire.

So what's the point of all this? Some folks think that they'll survive the collapse of government without the hordes of barbarians overrunning their area. When governments get too weak border controls collapse. Refugees don't stay in their nice little camps. There could be desperate people migrating all over the place with no concern for borders. You might have a nice place to weather the storm, but can you weather the storm of refugees?

Just like tribes in the past you may be forced to hit the road your own self. Widespread disruptions are like that. Don't be too critical on people who might have been happy to stay at home except they were forced out of their place too.

-Sixbears