Wife’s Close Call

My lovely wife had a close call on the way home from town. She fell asleep at the wheel. She woke up to the sound of tansys slapping against the car as she careened across a field at 60 mph. In the confusion her foot hit the clutch instead of the brake so the car wasn’t slowing down. She was able to avoid a metal highway reflector and steered back onto the road. 

She was fine. 

The next day we backtracked her path. That short section of field was the only place where it was possible to drive off the road with disaster happening. The rest of the 15 mile route she would have gone down steep embankments, into the river, crashed into trees or rocks. Her guardian angel must has PTSD.

Even the car didn’t make out too badly. There’s a loose heat shield that rattles now. It’s an easy fix. All the plant debris plugged up the cabin filter. The last thing is that the front of the car is covered in pounded up tansy bits. 

The car being in good shape is just a bonus. If the car would have been totaled but my lovely wife okay it would still have been a good day. 

-Sixbears

Our Economic Illusions

The economic news on Friday was pretty interesting. Apparently a couple tweets from the President can drop the stock market over 600 points. If the system was logical and sane, it would be impossible for that to happen.

Of course, the stock market has never been rational. People invest using their emotions as least as often as they use their brains. What do you expect from a system that runs on the “greater fool” system. The idea is that someone even more foolish than you will pay more.

Money itself is an illusion. The almighty dollar only has value because the government says it has value. Don’t even get me started on currency manipulation. In spite of all that the system mostly works.

Mostly.

Sometimes everyone loses faith and it ends in tears. Maybe the fact that a few tweets can upset the system so easily is a sign that the faith isn’t too strong? There’s always another financial crash coming. Timing though -there’s the rub.

While much of the economic system is an illusion, parts of it are very real indeed. Our International trade battles have consequences. The disappearance of retail has consequences. The closure of manufacturing plants have consequences. Savings rates, pensions, interest rates and a whole lot more have real effects on the individual.

One of the reasons I’m taking care of a lot of little things right now is that the systems could have a real glitch. My fear is that we’ll look for the man behind the curtain and no one will be there.

-Sixbears

Next economic crash

So . . . everybody set for the next economic crash? It's coming. Don't know when, but it's getting closer.

How do I know? There's always an economic crash. That's the way the economy works. Don't believe me? Study History. Oh, by the way, before every crash in in the past, folks were sure that “this time it's different.”

Here's the funny thing. Those who are most prepared for the crash feel a lot more worried than those who don't have preps. If you know how bad it could be, you realize how hard it is to prepare.

Do you know what's really dangerous? There are more and more people who would welcome an economic crash. The system has always been rigged in favor of the rich and powerful. It used to be that the elite used to try and somewhat hide that fact. Now they really don't care what Joe Average thinks.

Joe Average will be more than happy for the elite to lose their billions. He's going to suffer too, but a lot of Joes out there are beyond caring.

How can I say the economy is going to collapse when so many economic indicators look good? Things looked great on October 28, 1929. On October 29, 1929 we had what has become known as the official start of the Great Depression.

In short, it would serve everyone well to have some basic survival preps set aside. Just as important, be mentally prepared for sudden changes. If I'm wrong, you haven't lost anything. What if I'm right?

-Sixbears

New Neighbors?

I see the place across the road from me has been listed with a real estate agent. The same agent placed little American flags with her business card attached all over my property. I didn't appreciate that as I'm not in the market to sell. I happened to be out of town for a few days those flags just sat out there in all kinds of weather. That's wrong on a couple of levels. It disrespected the flag and showed I wasn't home to pick them up.

At any rate, the neighbors stopped trying to sell the place themselves and listed it with a broker. The people who were living there bailed partway through the winter. The house has only a little of the new siding on and the new deck isn't finished. The land was also used as a gravel pit. The owner's father is building a new place down the road. He took at least 80 dump truck loads of gravel out of the property, by his own admission. That's a lot of material for a one acre property.

I'm told the interior improvements to the house were extensive, but I haven't seen it. The outside looks terrible. There is a little strip of land along the road that was left alone -really left alone. They had to hack the weeds back to be able to put a for sale sign where it would be visible.

In spite of the place's obvious downsides, there was someone who came to see it. I know because my dog, not used to people being there, went over and barked at them. Nothing like making a good impression on potential neighbors. My lovely wife was able to call the dog back home.

The real estate market in my area really took a nosedive during the 2008 crash. Apparently, the local market is heating up again. If even sketchy places like my neighbor's is getting traffic, there must be some demand. That's probably why the real estate agent made an effort to give me her real estate card. After all, my property is the one with water frontage.

I can't help but be curious to see how things will sort out with the place next door.

-Sixbears

Are you ready for the crash?

Last chance to get your preps in order. Just because the election cycle is over doesn't mean the business cycle has been repealed. It won't help to blame the Obama administration or to blame the incoming Trump administration. The election may have some affect on the timing and determine some of the winners and losers. It won't stop it from happening.

The fundamentals do not look good. Everyone's debt is too high. Good jobs are disappearing. We have the basic problem of too many people going after diminishing resources. A huge problem is income inequity. When there's a tiny minority with all the money and power that's a good harbinger of trouble. Most financial programs tell people not to worry. They have all kinds of reasons things will be different this time. One question: how has their track record been? Those financial shows are not there to warn people. They are there to do two things, entertain and sell things.

The average person is in for a ride. Make sure you have stored up enough for your basic needs. When everyone is scrambling to the stores for food, water, and gasoline it's much safer to stay home. Relatively minor things can cause runs on essentials. If there's a real disaster, things are going to get ugly.

Gasoline prices are low right now. Is it a good time to buy that big truck your always wanted? Nope. If you need a vehicle I'd recommend getting one with good gas mileage. If you can substitute your car with a scooter that gets 115 mpg now would be the time. Gas prices could go though the roof quickly. A currency collapse could do that. War could do that. Heck, a few well placed hacks in our distribution system could sow chaos.

How are you set for food production? My lovely wife wants to turn me into a farmer. My ancestors came to this country so they wouldn't have to scrape in the dirt. I'm not a big fan of gardening. That being said, it looks like my lovely wife is going to get that greenhouse she always wanted.

What's your security like? Do you trust the people around you? Are you significantly different than your neighbors? That might be a problem when scapegoats are needed.

This is your wake up call. Right now half the country is paralyzed because the Democrats lost. The other half is jubilant that the Republicans won. Neither group is particularly focused on the dangers ahead. The President is not the person you should be overly concerned about in the coming days. He'll be fine. You should look to yourself, your family, friends -your tribe, to be ready for the days ahead. It's going to get real folks.

I'm not trying to panic anyone. Panic doesn't get the job done. All I want is for people to take a hard look around. Watch for the signs. It's not going to hurt to be ready for trouble. Think local and put ideology aside. You don't have to agree with your neighbor's politics to get along with them. Really.

-Sixbears

Depressions without depression

During the great Depression times were tough. Most folks endured financial set backs. Some people lost everything. Many people truly suffered.

In spite of the huge monetary losses, a lot of people were actually in pretty good spirits. They may have lost a lot of money, but they still found joy in their hearts. There were those who say that the Depression was a happy time for them.

How is that possible? For those who's families and friends joined forces to help each other there was a “we are all in this together” feeling. Being able to contribute to a group for a good cause creates a lot of satisfaction. Their financial capital was low, but their social capital was high.

My grandmother fed a lot of people during those hard times. She had a huge outdoor kitchen set up in a small barn. Running down the center of the building was a long table made out of old doors and saw horses. She had a huge garden and people would contribute what they could. It was a big deal when relatives came down from Canada with crates of salted fish.

From the tales my grandfather told me, a lot of times those dinners turned into parties. Of course, US Prohibition was still in effect and those Canadian relatives often smuggled a few bottles of booze over the border. That might have helped a lot with the party atmosphere.

A lot of people were just grateful that they were not as bad off as some other people. My grandfather managed to find just enough work to keep his large family fed -a good accomplishment for the times.

If you believe that those days will never come again, then this is just a quaint story about the old days. However, if you think we haven't seen the last of depressions then there are some lessons here.

Just because it's a depression doesn't mean we have to be depressed. Having people to rely on, some level of self-reliance, and good attitude go a long way.

-Sixbears