Stormwatch 2018

Well, so much for long range forecasts. Some of the long range weather forecasts looked pretty promising for a mild hurricane season. Wind shear and dry air over the Atlantic indicated it would put a damper on storms. There are a bunch of storms churning around in the Atlantic right now that say those factors aren't enough.

Why should I care, living in the mountains of New Hampshire? How about Brotherhood of Man and all that? Besides my general empathy, hurricanes could definitely affect my travel plans. Last year Irene messed up my sailing grounds enough that I left the boat home. If the US Atlantic coasts gets a pounding this year, it will make me reconsider my sailboat trip down the coast. It's no fun to sail in debris filled waters with coastal services like marinas all shut down. It might have been interesting back when I was 19 and immortal. At 60, I'd rather not.

Hurricane Florence is sending boaters scrambling from New England to Florida. Many up north are delaying their trip south. There are others further down the coast scrambling for hurricane holes. Current wisdom indicates that Savanna Georgia might be a good place to sit this one out -if you can find room in a marina.

There are pretty good odds that this storm will stay off-shore, but right now it's too early to tell for sure. Even off-shore storms create conditions bad enough to cause serious problems. Behind Florence are a number of storms waiting their turn.

My departure date puts me on the water around the 19th or 20th of October. While that's not the height of the hurricane season, it's still a moderately risky time. So I'm going to pay attention for the next month or so and take my best guess on what to do. I don't need a zero risk situation. If you tried to eliminate all risk, you'd never do anything.

-Sixbears