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Sunday, October 23, 2022

How the war ends



Russia doesn’t have much of a military. They’ve proven to be a third rate nation. What they did have was a first rate propaganda department. When I hear US politicians parroting Putin’s lines I realize how effective the propaganda has been. Why so many in the US suck up to dictators is a mystery to me. Do they love authoritarianism more than democracy?


Be that as it may, the Kremlin’s propaganda has lost a lot of its polish. The attempts to insert viral videos in social media has gotten clunky of late. Perhaps a lot of those clever computer savvy young people have now fled to Georgia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and parts unknown?


Enough of that little side trip. So how does the war end? Russian victory? Not going to happen. It was known right from the start that Russia failed to commit enough troops and resources to hold the country. It was thought they had enough to take it, but taking it and holding it are two different things. As events on the ground have demonstrated, they didn’t even have a strong enough military to take it in the first place. All they can do now is commit atrocities. That doesn’t win the war. That creates life long enemies. 


Will the war end with a peace treaty? What would that look like? Ukraine has no desire to let Russia keep an inch of Ukrainian soil. Why should they? Russia will just try again later. That’s what history has demonstrated and Ukraine isn’t going to settle for that again. Now if Russia would give up all claims to Ukraine, returned Ukrainian citizens, paid reparations and demilitarized the border, they might get a treaty. Might. 


Let’s say the Russians are pushed back to their 2013 borders. What happens then? In the past the thing to do would be to continue on to Moscow. The west won’t let that happen and I don’t think Ukraine wants or could do that. Now if for some reason NATO got involved, that definitely could happen. However, it’s unlikely.


So how does it end? First lets think about how Putin ends. I can’t see how he survives this. He’s as clever and vicious as a cornered rat so it could go down dirty. Will the rest of Russia let him drag down the country? Will his replacement be even worse? Get your popcorn ready. The show is about to start. 


There’s a fair chance this will end with the breakup of Russia. It’s not a nation. It’s an empire. The bits and pieces that make up the empire are getting tired of what’s been going on in Moscow. What military Russia has left may end up diverted to holding onto the remains of a Russian rump state. 


So what can Joe Average do about this? Not a whole heck of a lot. There will be turmoil aplenty to go around. Expect some economic upsets around the globe. The US is actually in a pretty good place in the long term, so that’s a plus. Concentrate on the basics: food, water, shelter, and personal security. That will help immensely with day to day living. The next six months or so will be quite the ride. 


-Sixbears

15 comments:

  1. Mother of god your ignorance is infinite it seems

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    1. I agree 1000%.
      "If NATO got involved"???
      And we're about to dump another $50 Billion into our proxy war?
      This mindset is laughable!

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    2. Say Nato got involved full force. Russia would have 25 minutes to get it's affairs in order. I've been there, this is no exaggeration.

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  2. Russia hasn't been a military power since the 80's....if then. If it weren't for their sizeable nuclear arsenal nobody would take them seriously as a military power. They can't win in Ukraine. And Ukraine can't conquer Russia. Forget about conquering Russia. Napoleon and Hitler both learned that's not feasible. The Russian people do NOT want to be in Ukraine. But anyone invading Russia will change that metric in a heartbeat. Nobody save maybe the Chinese have the manpower to invade and hold Russia. It's just too large. How this fiasco ends is a good question. And as long as the canned sunshine stays canned it's not America's major problem. The economy and the imminent collapse of the Dollar as the Benchmark Currency is far more important to us than anything going on in or near the balkans.

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    1. There's a reason the Balkans were known as the world's powder keg. If we are lucky and clever we can avoid WWIII. Seems even more important than a bit of inflation or currency collapse.

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    2. lol, if we were lucky or clever we wouldn't be in this position in the first place. btw, the collapse of the dollar will likely kill millions of people. not so trivial i think.

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    3. Currency collapse happens on a regular cycle. We've been overdue for a while. It's baked into the cake, no matter what else happens. If we were smart we'd do what we could to reduce the damages. However, there's no profit in that for the big boys.

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  3. The War in Ukraine will stop shortly after the USA falls into social collapse due to many factors that are ongoing.

    We have (And continue to) pumped in billions of dollars' worth of funds, fuel, food, weapons and of course Bribes to keep OUR Politicians in the EU-NATO obedient.

    EO's destroying our energy system for Green Energy and food issues there will be folks deciding if they are going to pay for heat OR food OR Medicine and so on.

    Winter is coming, the real-world facts that the USA cannot really replace the sanctioned Russian natural gas, Russian Electricity and Russian Food and Fertilizer. The lack of required infrastructure is real world.

    That and we have to Rob Peter to Pay Paul thusly. I'm sure Americans will be good with going without for Europe (sarc).

    You might want to wander over to Bore Patch and see the French Hair Cut article. It has an excellent link about the real-world troubles that fake computer keyboard US Dollars cannot fix.

    You can "Print" money, but you cannot print a single loaf of bread or gallon of gasoline.

    Look to the Weimar Republic or read the Death of Money for real historical results.

    French Haircuts coming soon to a city and town near you.

    Build Back Better involved burning down everything and seems well in process. Even if the Republicans took over both houses of CONgress (spelling intentional) it will not matter.

    Much like the Great Depression the Democrats destroyed President Hoover (R) by allowing HIM to be the fall guy for the "Hoovervilles" as homeless camps were called and hoover blankets as newspapers over street folks had.

    The unelected bureaucracy (aka Deep State) is running the Punch and Judy show in the White House. Mostly Obama folks and Obama's "Change you can step in" is going well. THEY are the faceless Kingmakers.

    The Kingmakers plan on being in charge no matter who we "elect". Ask Kennedy about that.

    6 months of stored foods? LOL how about 2+ years of food and so on.

    Winter is almost here. Enjoy the ride.

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    1. Actually looking forward to winter on a personal level.

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    2. Two years of stored preps ? Hell , I keep going after the lifetimes worth of stuff !

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  4. Hope you can continue to buy pallets of presto logs , with presto dollars...

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    1. So far, so good. It is comforting to have them sitting in the yard. Much more comforting than money in the bank. More on the way. It is amazing to me that all that fake money can be traded for useful stuff.

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  5. You need to put down the crack pipe and seek help.

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    1. It's just the extreme Lefty dementia. Incurable except by vax damage.

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