Friday, May 28, 2010

Acting on early signs of trouble

I really debated with myself on whether or not to post this. People think I'm enough of a doomer as it is. This is scary stuff here. It has the potential to really upset people. However, if things do go down this way, I'd have felt bad for not giving any warning. Don't take my word for it. Do your own research and then act accordingly.

On Thursday, May 27, BP claimed some success in plugging the oil leak. Strange that their underwater camera went down around the same time. At any rate, here are a few points to consider: The disaster in the Gulf is well into its second month. All efforts to stop the spill, until now, have failed to one degree or another. True, BP's been able to siphon off a small percentage of the oil. Matt Simmons claims the oil leak in the live video isn't the main leak: . There has to be a much bigger leak somewhere else.

If you accept that Matt Simmons is a good authority, if you believe independent estimates of the size of the leak, then the problem is orders of magnitude larger than what BP claims.

It's logical to suppose that since BP apparently isn't even addressing the largest leak, then it's going to go on for many months yet. Imagine what the region will look like 6 - 12, months from now? Eventually, the toxic mess will make it to every state bordering the Gulf. It's going to enter the loop current, (if it hasn't already) then head out into the Gulf Stream up the Atlantic seaboard.

Now if you've studied the evidence and believe this has a high chance of happening, what are you going to do? If you live anywhere near the Gulf, why aren't you packing to head north? Are you going to wait for the Gulf economy to completely collapse first? Waiting for you kids to get sick from toxic fumes? Waiting for all your neighbors to do the same thing so you don't look silly?

People already living in the north, don't be so smug. What happens when most people in the Gulf region wake up and get the heck out of there? I've family and friends in the region, from Texas to Florida. They don't believe it's going to be all that bad, so they've not prepared to evacuate. Should they have to leave, some will come to my house, having no place else to go.

I don't have much extra money right now, but I am buying a couple hundred more pounds of grain. If nothing major happens, we're going to eat it sooner or later. If more people people move in, at least we'll have bread for a while.

A few years ago my lovely wife and I were dining in a restaurant. She happened to notice smoke coming from the kitchen and pointed it out to me. When I turned around, I could see it was banking up against the ceiling and making its way to the dining area. It only took a few seconds to decide we were getting out of there. I left the money for dinner by the cash and we headed out the door.

As it turns out, the place didn't burn down. I'm glad it didn't. When we left, we overheard the staff wondering if they should maybe call the manager, not the Fire Department. Apparently calling the Fire Department was a management decision. It could have been bad. The whole dining room could have suddenly headed for the exits in a panic. That's when people die. We got out of there before a potential rush for the doors.

So I've got to ask. If you believe things could get horribly bad, have you taken action yet?



  1. I live in Florida and I share your concern. Unfortunately, it is hard to convince everyone to evacuate, and then evacuate to where?

    I read an article a couple of days ago about how a Pacific hurricane pulled plankton from the Pacific Ocean and deposited it all the way in Oklahoma. If a large hurricane hits this the Gulf this summer, it will spread oil and dispersant all across the South and East - just think about how the typical summer hurricane goes up through Alabama/Florida and up to New York - now think about a hurricane this summer spreading a film of oil and dispersant all the way, killing all the plants and putting hydro-carbons in the food and water supply.

    Since I can't get my family on board (yet), I have camoflaged the evacuation as a vacation by taking a month long RV trip in June/July to Colorado to visit my brother. Colorado should be safe from contamination (I hope). I'll be taking extra supplies with me, and if there is any increase in threat before then, I'll have my brother buy extra supplies pending my arrival. Hopefully we'll know by then what is happening in the Gulf, and if it is too dangerous to return. If it turns into a worst case scenario, we have a large RV, and could live in it indefinately.

    p.s. I enjoy reading your blog, you make a lot of sense, but I think you'd get a lot more comments/feedback if you opened it up to more anonymous posting. You can always delay posting comments until you review them.

  2. Hi Jack,

    Thanks for the heads up on my comment settings. For some reason they were changed without my knowledge. Weird.

    Good vacation planning. You've got an escape pod. If things look bad, you can get out in a hurry and have your home with you.

    I've friends in northern FL. In 2005 during the hurricane evacuations, many cars ran out of gas on the highway near their place. Make sure you have some decent range.

    My dad's in the Tampa area. Trying to convince him to "vacation" up here for the summer . . . and might as well stay for hunting season in the fall. Got him to commit to August so far. At least he's thinking of heading north and has put some cash aside for the trip.