Friday, August 5, 2022

China Danger?

China is upset about the US Speaker of the House’s visit. Sabers are being rattled. Are we in danger of seeing another war break out?

Normally I’d say it was all posture, but these are not normal times. In my opinion the issues are less about Taiwan than they are about what’s happening internally in China. 

Chinese people have heavily invested in real estate to the point where there are whole “ghost cities” where nobody lives. It’s the most amazing real estate bubble in history. Now that bubble is bursting. The ruling party is doing all they can to suppress the news of investor protests. This bubble alone is enough to take down the government. 

That’s only part of the economic troubles. Manufacturing is fleeing the country. A lot of it is going back to North America. Low cost manufacturing is going to places like Vietnam. China is just not a good place to do business anymore. They’ve become a lot more hostile towards foreigners. 

Demographically the country is in trouble. They have a rapidly aging population and due to their one child policy a much smaller working class coming up to support them. The demographics are even worse when you consider the Chinese preference to having boys rather than girls. 

China can’t feed itself without imports. They import both food and fertilizers. If that stops a lot of people will starve to death. They also import a lot of their energy: coal, oil, and natural gas. 

To make the situation worse the Chinese leadership is basically just Xi. He has no checks and balances. He could make the calculation that losing hundreds of thousands of people to invade Taiwan is worth it if they are going to starve anyway. 

It would not turn out very well for China. Not only does the US have Taiwan’s back, Japan would be in the fight. It seems that China has gone out of its way to antagonize Japan. Who knows why? That’s a mistake as Japan’s military is highly underrated. They keep a low profile, but are actually modern, sizable, and capable. 

So how does this affect your average prepper? First of all, don’t panic. These are the sort of things we prep for. There would be a lot of economic disruptions. If we are lucky it would remain a regional conflict, but these things could always spin out of control. Unless you are high up in a major country’s power circles there’s not really much you can to about it. When the avalanche comes the best you can hope for is to be out of it’s way. You aren’t going to stop it.



  1. Yes.... China's economy is probably as unstable as ours. The difference is China isn't being run by idiots with an insane unachievable agenda. And EVERY decision made there is made to make China stronger and more powerful. Here every decision being made is part of a deliberate attempt to destroy America. Is a war with China possible? Yes. And if it happens it will be an accidental and unintended outcome of some act that was committed to try and achieve something else. Most wars are not intentional. They happen by miscalculation. China does not want a war. Everyone with the IQ of soap knows that such a war would probably end up as a nuclear war.....which NOBODY wins.

    1. I believe China is run by idiots. The CCP has only one goal -stay in power.

    2. No....I don't thing China is run by idiots. It's just that they think differently from us, have different agendas and ACTIVELY act as if WE are their enemy....which we are. And they are our enemy. It's just that the war they are waging against us doesn't look like a traditional war so few people believe they are at war with us. As for a country being run by idiots.....That would be the US. A few of the people wielding power anonymously are clever. Most are raving idiots who believe men can get pregnant and ACT on that belief.

  2. Thanks for your thoughts. I disagree about Japan’s capabilities. Did a joint tour with them. *Excellent* morale, proficiency, & esprit de corps but their hardware was obsolete and available in very small quantities. They *will fight - just as the Poles on horseback did against German tanks.

  3. The Chinese need a small controllable Victorious War to keep the Communist Party in power.

    The counterbalance of the USA is essentially missing, due to many factors aside from China owning Biden and most of the Deep State.

    Something scary to think about. Even though many manufacturers are fleeing China it takes YEARS to re-establish factories and build supply lines. China knows this well so knows the limits that will create on them in the near future.

    Some 80% of the world's medications and or the pre-cursers to making the rest come from China as of right now.

    Know anybody diabetic? On Heart meds? Maybe a few questionable neighbors on mood altering legal drugs? A HUGE % of Americans are one several daily meds for Normal Life.

    All can stop with but an order from Xi or our "sanctions" on China for actions we disapprove of.

    China has been playing the Long Game with the World for decades, Payday OR Collapse of China is near.

    Prep NOW for gaps in your plans.

  4. In May 2021, China dropped the one child policy and moved to a two child policy, then In July 2021, China dropped all limits and penalties to children and benefits.