Wednesday, March 23, 2022

Watching War Change

Ukraine is taking a heavy toll on armor and aircraft. Their hand held weapons are doing a number on some really expensive equipment. The economics of war is changing. We are seeing hints how future wars might be fought.

A $5000 missile operated by a single soldier can remove multi-million dollar tanks from the battlefield. Even rich countries cannot sustain that sort of thing forever. The numbers are even worse when a Stinger takes out a combat jet.

Bayraktar drones have proven to be remarkably effective. They aren’t even particularity sophisticated compared to US drones. However, they are something like 70% as effective at 20% of the cost.

While those drones are in the limelight, there are other drones that are much much cheaper doing amazing work. Ukrainian commercial drone hobbyists set up a drone network to provide intelligence to the military. These drones are something that you could pick up from Amazon or Ebay.

A US ally is claimed to have once used a million dollar Patriot Missile to take out a $300 commercial drone.

The lessons from Ukraine will be learned by every mid to low tier country with half a brain. It’s possible to make war very costly to major powers. War has gotten seriously asymmetrical. All you need is a piece of hardware that looks like drain pipe and a soldier with immense intestinal fortitude.


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