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Thursday, September 22, 2022

Putin’s Nuclear War



Nuclear War (and this time I really really mean it.)


Putin appears to be desperate. At the rate their victories are happening the Ukrainians will be in Sevastopol in no time. His decision to call up reservists is very unpopular in Russia. Mothers don’t want to send their sons off to die. 300,000 out of shape, barely trained and totally unmotivated troops won’t turn the tide. That’s even if they can be outfitted with anything better than Mosin Nagants. 


He’s doubling down by the shame votes to incorporate the conquered territories into Russia. That way an attack on them will be an attack on Russia itself. The West isn’t buying it. Not only that, why should Ukraine limit themselves to fighting on their own territory? There are transportation and communication hubs in Russia proper that are perfectly valid military targets. 


Russia doesn’t have what it needs to win this war. What it does have is nuclear weapons. The problem is that they are not the weapon for the job. Even tactical nukes don’t make much military sense. Ukrainians are very good at dispersing their troops and only bringing them together when needed for an assault. When that happens they are too close to Russian troops to safely use nukes. 


Use of strategic nukes is a suicide pill. Maybe Putin is suicidal, but I doubt the rest of the Russian government is. I don’t expect this conflict to go nuclear. If the major European capitals go up in radioactive flames I’ll be terribly embarrassed.


-Sixbears

10 comments:

  1. It likely would not be a strike on Europe. Rather a higher probability , might be a first strike on the continental USA, in the form of EMP weapons.
    To knock out our weapon manufacturing and economy. Then do what they will with Europe.

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    1. The counter strike wouldn't go very well for Russia. We'd still be in the crap. Not very good for anybody. New Zealand looks pretty good right now.

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    2. People like Putin and his lackey Trump don't care about the outcome if they cannot get their way. Besides I'm sure they've both got deep well protected bunkers.
      Thing is , our means of retaliation , must have command and control approval from the top. In order to function they all must have permission to use those weapons. If the head has no means of communication then they cannot use them. We are talking about extreme narcissist's here that only wish to be remembered long after they are dead.

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    3. Every Nuclear powered ship in our fleet and the Russian fleet has complete autonomy and can strike without orders from either president. However, there are a few of Putin's lackies that would possibly aim in the wrong direction. I'm expecting an assassination attempt or success very soon.

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    4. I was pretty sure the subs had a certain amount of independent leeway as a last ditch effort.

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  2. When sanity leaves the worlds leaders desperate leaders will resort to suicidal temptations.

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    1. If the want to kill themselves that's their business. I'm not so keen about them taking us all down with them.

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    2. Yeah, that's part of the sickness.

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  3. Nuclear weapons are weapons of last resort. Only used out of desperation. And once that Pandora's box is opened it will stay open. There simply is no such thing as a "limited nuclear war". Once the first warhead goes off more will follow.....in a chain reaction. The epitome of irony. The result, 80% of humanity dead within a year and civilization set back several centuries...with no chance of rebuilding because all the easily reachable resources have been used up already.

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    1. It's definitely a civilization killer. You don't even need launchers. Just blow them up on your own land and let the fallout spread around the world.

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